A great product roadmap isn’t just a list of features—it’s a strategic investment portfolio. Just like an investor carefully selects assets based on risk, potential return, and long-term value, a product manager must make calculated bets on initiatives that drive growth, customer satisfaction, and business impact.
By treating your roadmap like an investment thesis, you can make smarter decisions, focus on long-term success, and avoid chasing short-term trends that don’t align with your vision.
1. Define Your Investment Criteria (a.k.a. Product Vision & Goals)
Investors don’t put money into random stocks; they have a clear thesis about what will drive value. Similarly, your product roadmap should be anchored in a well-defined vision.
- What key problems are you solving for users?
- What business objectives must your product support?
- What are your non-negotiables (e.g., scalability, security, cost-efficiency)?
Every roadmap item should directly contribute to these overarching goals. If it doesn’t, it’s a distraction.
2. Diversify Your Portfolio (a.k.a. Balance Risk & Impact)
Investors balance their portfolios with a mix of high-risk, high-reward bets and safer, incremental investments. Your roadmap should do the same:
- Core Enhancements: Small but necessary improvements to keep existing users happy.
- Growth Bets: New features or expansions that open new revenue streams.
- Moonshots: High-risk innovations that could redefine your product category.
By having a mix, you mitigate risk while still allowing space for innovation.
3. Do Deep Due Diligence (a.k.a. Validate Before You Build)
Investors don’t just rely on gut instinct; they analyze market trends, conduct due diligence, and seek expert opinions. As a product manager, you should:
- Talk to customers to validate problems and solutions.
- Analyze market data to ensure demand.
- Run experiments or A/B tests before committing large resources.
Skipping this step leads to wasted development cycles and poor adoption.
4. Set a Hypothesis for Each Investment (a.k.a. Measure Success)
Investors make bets based on hypotheses: “This market will grow because of X, Y, and Z.” Product teams should do the same:
- Feature X will increase retention by 10% within six months.
- Integration Y will expand our addressable market by 20%.
- Improvement Z will reduce churn in our core segment.
If a roadmap item doesn’t have a clear success metric, it’s a sign you’re flying blind.
5. Know When to Cut Losses (a.k.a. Kill Bad Investments)
Smart investors know when to exit a bad investment. Product managers should have the same discipline. If a feature isn’t meeting its expected impact, be willing to:
- Pivot and adjust the approach.
- Sunset the feature and reallocate resources.
- Learn from failure instead of doubling down.
Every roadmap should have room for retrospectives, so you can refine your strategy based on real outcomes.
6. Think in Time Horizons (a.k.a. Plan for Short, Mid & Long-Term)
Great investors don’t just chase quarterly returns; they think in 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year time frames. Your roadmap should be structured similarly:
- Short-Term (0-6 months): Quick wins and iterative improvements.
- Mid-Term (6-18 months): Strategic bets that require more effort but drive major impact.
- Long-Term (18+ months): Visionary initiatives that shape the future of your product.
This structure ensures you’re balancing immediate user needs with long-term competitive advantage.
Final Thoughts
This approach was inspired by the way investors craft an investment thesis to make informed decisions. After reading Bunch Capital’s Guide to Investment Theses, I realized that product roadmaps share the same core principles—allocating resources strategically, balancing risk and reward, and thinking in long-term horizons.
By applying these principles, you’ll create a roadmap that’s not just a list of features—but a portfolio of well-calculated bets that drive real business value.
